Equity Research Ranking
for Chinese Security Firms
In an attempt to impartially assess the equity research competencies of Chinese sell-side firms, we have developed a unique ranking method. This method utilizes Adjusted Proportional Mean Absolute Forecast Error (MAFE) to determine the forecast accuracy of firms dealing with stocks listed in Shenzhen or Shanghai. In addition to the Prediction Accuracy Score, we also compute a Prediction Frequency Score to gauge the level of research activity undertaken by these sell-side firms.
Our assessment, based on the annual EPS projections for 2023, covered 72 sell-side firms and 3454 stocks listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen. The top three firms in terms of accuracy were China Dragon Securities, Great Wall Glory Securities, and Vanho Securities. In terms of activity, the most proactive firms in making projections were Minsheng Securities, Tianfeng Securities, and Soochow Securities.
The updated ranking for 2024 will be available in mid-2025, once all listed companies have published their annual reports. Rankings segmented by sector can be provided upon request.
Sell-side Firms  | Sell-side Firms (Chinese) | Accuracy Rank (2023) | Accuracy Score (2023)  | Accuracy Rank Change from 2022 | Frequency Rank (2023) | Frequency Score (2023) | Frequency Rank Change from 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minsheng Securities | 民生证券 | 30 | 50.42 |  9 | 1 | 100 |  6 |
| Tianfeng Securities | 天风证券 | 49 | 39.83 | 4 | 2 | 99.03 | 1 |
| Soochow Securities | 东吴证券 | 33 | 49.65 | 28 | 3 | 94.54 | 1 |
| Kaiyuan Securities | 开源证券 | 39 | 47.16 | 25 | 4 | 83.34 | 4 |
| Essence Securities | 安信证券 | 36 | 47.7 | 17 | 5 | 81.7 | 3 |
| Guosen Securities | 国信证券 | 13 | 61.31 | 18 | 6 | 79.16 | 12 |
| Zhongtai Securities | 中泰证券 | 47 | 42.76 | 27 | 7 | 76.28 | 2 |
| Sinolink Securities | 国金证券 | 24 | 53.89 | 14 | 8 | 74.1 | 3 |
| Southwest Securities | 西南证券 | 41 | 46.2 | 2 | 9 | 68.93 | = |
| Cinda Securities | 信达证券 | 44 | 44.91 | 19 | 10 | 59.88 | 2 |
| Sealand Securities | 国海证券 | 34 | 48.8 | 4 | 11 | 56.55 | 2 |
| Topsperity Securities | 德邦证券 | 37 | 47.67 | 22 | 12 | 46.18 | 18 |
| Guolian Securities | 国联证券 | 22 | 53.98 | 18 | 13 | 46.09 | 12 |
| Huaan Securities | 华安证券 | 42 | 46.09 | 8 | 14 | 44.73 | = |
| China Fortune Securities | 华鑫证券 | 26 | 53.15 | 12 | 15 | 41.56 | 9 |
| China Galaxy Securities | 中国银河 | 18 | 60.06 | New | 16 | 38.7 | New |
| BOC International (China) | 中银证券 | 28 | 52.62 | 21 | 17 | 37.63 | 2 |
| Capital Securities | 首创证券 | 27 | 52.8 | 16 | 18 | 36.49 | 2 |
| Haitong International Securities | 海通国际 | 29 | 51.32 | 22 | 19 | 28.9 | 18 |
| China Post Securities | 中邮证券 | 23 | 53.89 | 5 | 20 | 28.62 | 21 |
Note: The ranking excludes 18 security firms with less than 5 predictions.
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Our Adjusted Proportional MAFE approach has two primary features:
It is adjusted for the timing of the predictions. Specifically, we have considered that forecasts generally become more precise when made at a later stage with more data at disposal. Thus, the time factor influencing the accuracy of predictions is eliminated from our computation and ranking.
It is proportional as it compares the prediction accuracy of individual sell-side firms with industry averages.
Data sources: EPS projections and actual data from EastMoney accessible at https://www.eastmoney.com/.
Technical notes available upon request. Email: admin@oxbridge-econ.com.